Baltish presidential election, 2016

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Baltish presidential election, 2016
← 2010 11 and 25 September 2016 2022 →

 
Christine Kallenbach1.png
Marina Kaltenberg.jpg
Nominee Christine Kallenbach Marina Kaltenberg
Party Independent Independent
Popular vote 1,363,848 1,309,722
Percentage 51.01% 48.99%

Results 2nd round PE2016 Regions.png
Results of the second round by region

President before election

Thomas Henrik Imhoff

Elected President

Christine Kallenbach

The Baltish presidential election of 2016 was the eighteenth presidential election to be held in Baltia. The first round took place on 11 September 2016 and the second round occurred on 25 September 2016. The elected candidate's term began on 14 October 2016 and will last until October 2022. The incumbent Thomas Henrik Imhoff was ineligible for re-election, having served the maximum two terms.

Eight candidates were confirmed by the National Electoral Committee of Baltia on 13 July 2016. No candidate received a majority of votes in the first round; with 30.2 percent of the vote, Christine Kallenbach, an independent politician endorsed by the Baltish People's Party and the Christian Social Union faced off against Marina Kaltenberg, also an independent politician endorsed by the Social Democratic Party, who received 24.3% of the vote.

Christine Kallenbach won the second round with 51.0% of the votes, while Marina Kaltenberg received 49.0% of the votes.

It was the first time that two women and two independent candidates was on the runoff ballot in a presidential election in Baltia.

Candidates[edit]

Previously plausible candidates[edit]

Centre Party
Declined to run:

Baltish People's Party
Declined to run:

Social Democratic Party
Declined to run:

Christian Social Union
Declined to run:

Party for Freedom
Declined to run:

The Greens
Announced, then defeated in primary:

Left Bloc
Announced, then defeated in primary:

Declined to run:

Other candidates
Failed to collect the 20,000 signatures needed to be a candidate:

Confirmed candidates[edit]

Candidate name, age and
political party
Office(s) held Details
Johannes Adelman
(59)
Left Bloc
Johannes Adelman.jpg
MP for Riga
(since 1995)
The Left Bloc nominated, after a primary election on 12 May 2016, the veteran MP Johannes Adelman as the party's candidate to the Presidency.
Martin Bolender
(44)
Independent
Martin Bolender.jpg
Head of the Office of the President
(1999–2004)
MP for Riga
(2007–2011)
On 4 May 2016, Martin Bolender announced that he had gathered the needed 20,000 signatures. On 12 May 2016, the Electoral Commission confirmed Bolender as official candidate.
Alois Jonke
(51)
Independent
Alois Jonke.jpg
Chancellor of Justice
(2001–2008)
On 10 April 2016, the PfdF endorsed Jonke as the party's presidential candidate.
Christine Kallenbach
(46)
Independent
Christine Kallenbach1.png
Member of the European Court of Auditors
(2004–2016)
Former member of the BFP, ran to the Presidency as an independent politician with the support of the BFP and the CSU on 20 June 2016.
Samuel Kallmann
(67)
Centre Party
Samuel Kallmann1.png
Governor of the Bank of Baltia
(1991–1995)
MP for Reval
(1995-2004)
Minister of Finance
(1999–2002)
Prime Minister
(2002–2003)
European Commissioner for Administrative Affairs, Audit and Anti-Fraud
(2004–2010)
European Commissioner for Transport
(2010–2014)
The ZP nominated the veteran politician Samuel Kallmann, in preference to Marina Kaltenberg, as the party's official candidate after several months of internal debate.
Marina Kaltenberg
(54)
Independent
Marina Kaltenberg.jpg
Baltish Ambassador to Israel
(2004–2006)
Baltish Ambassador to Russia
(2006–2011)
Baltish Ambassador to United States
(2011–2014)
Minister of Foreign Affairs
(2015–2016)
On 3 July 2016, the ZP decided to support Samuel Kallmann as presidential candidate. After the decision, Kaltenberg announced that she would step down from her position as Minister of Foreign Affairs and would run for presidency without the support from the ZP. Her presidential bid was then supported by the SP.
Erhard Lewisohn
(61)
Independent
Erhard Lewisohn.jpg
Minister of Justice
(1992–1993)
Judge of the European Court of Human Rights
(1995–2004)
Judge of the European Court of Justice
(since 2004)
On 27 May 2016, Erhard Lewisohn announced that he had gathered the needed 20,000 signatures. On 8 June 2016, the Electoral Commission confirmed Lewisohn as official candidate.
Alexei Löffler
(56)
The Greens
Alexei Löffler.jpg
MP for Vierland
(2011–2015)
On 24 April 2016, The Greens elected in a primary election the former chairman of the party, Alexei Löffler as their presidential candidate.

Campaign[edit]

Funding[edit]

The candidancies have budgeted about more money for their campaigns than during the last presidential election in 2010. Ahead of the election, the campaign teams have budgeted as follows: Samuel Kallmann 750,000 euros, Christine Kallenbach and Marina Kaltenberg 600,000 euros, Alois Jonke 425,000 euros, Alexei Löffler 350,000 euros, Johannes Adelman 300,000 euros, Martin Bolender 130,000 euros and Erhard Lewisohn 75,000 euros.

Debates[edit]

Before the first round, there were several number of debates between all the candidates in TV networks and radio networks. Before the second round, only two debates took place on BR1 and TV4 between the final candidates Christine Kallenbach and Marina Kaltenberg.

2016 Baltish presidential election first-round debates
Date Organizers Moderators Language Notes
14 August 2016
20:00
Politisch Sommer
BR2
Henrik Treitschke Baltish E. Lewisohn not present in the debate.
22 August 2016
18:00
University of Dorpat
BNS
Baltish
English
J. Adelman and E. Lewisohn not present in the debate.
24 August 2016
20:00
TV4 Martin Madelung
Sigrid Ehrenbaum
Baltish All the candidates present in the debate.
25 August 2016
21:00
BR1
BR Radio 1
Andreas Kuntz Baltish All the candidates present in the debate.
1 September 2016
20:00
Kanal 5
RadioCity
Olaf Schulberg Baltish All the candidates present in the debate.
4 September 2016
20:00
TV4 Martin Madelung
Sigrid Ehrenbaum
Baltish All the candidates present in the debate.
5 September 2016
15:00
Sky Radio Gunther Schiner Baltish E. Lewisohn not present in the debate.
6 September 2016
20:00
BR4
BR Radio 3
Yulia Gurova
Nikolai Lopatin
Russian A. Jonke not present in the debate.
7 September 2016
18:00
TV24
Radio24
Ulrike Latzke Baltish All the candidates present in the debate.
8 September 2016
21:00
BR1
BR Radio 1
Andreas Kuntz Baltish All the candidates present in the debate.
2016 Baltish presidential election second-round debates
Date Organizers Moderators Language Notes
18 September 2016
20:00
TV4 Martin Madelung
Sigrid Ehrenbaum
Baltish Both candidates present in the debate.
22 September 2016
21:00
BR1
BR Radio 1
Andreas Kuntz Baltish Both candidates present in the debate.

Opinion polling[edit]

First round[edit]

Date Poll source Marina
Kaltenberg

Ind.
Samuel
Kallmann

ZP
Christine
Kallenbach

Ind.
Alois
Jonke

Ind.
Alexei
Löffler

G
Martin
Bolender

Ind.
Johannes
Adelman

LB
Erhard
Lewisohn

Ind.
Others Undecided
11 Sep 2016 Kantar TNS 26% 17% 28% 9% 7% 7% 5% 1% - -
11 Sep 2016 Forsa/SB 26% 16% 30% 8% 6% 7% 5% 2% - -
8 Sep 2016 Forsa 25% 14% 26% 6% 6% 6% 3% 1% - 13%
8 Sep 2016 YouTrend 25% 14% 24% 8% 6% 6% 2% 1% - 14%
6 Sep 2016 Kantar TNS 26% 17% 23% 7% 5% 6% 3% 1% - 12%
4 Sep 2016 Forsa 27% 14% 22% 7% 5% 5% 3% 1% - 16%
4 Sep 2016 RIB 28% 13% 22% 9% 6% 7% 4% 1% - 10%
3 Sep 2016 YouTrend 26% 14% 21% 10% 6% 7% 2% 1% - 13%
28 Aug 2016 Kantar TNS 28% 15% 19% 11% 5% 5% 2% 1% - 14%
28 Aug 2016 YouTrend 28% 15% 18% 10% 5% 6% 2% 2% - 14%
26 Aug 2016 Forsa 27% 16% 16% 11% 5% 5% 3% 1% - 16%
14 Aug 2016 Kantar TNS 29% 16% 13% 12% 5% 2% 2% 1% - 20%
24 Jul 2016 Kantar TNS 29% 18% 12% 12% 6% 1% 2% 1% - 19%
23 Jul 2016 Forsa 26% 17% 15% 10% 5% 2% 2% 1% - 22%
17 Jul 2016 YouTrend 28% 17% 14% 10% 5% 2% 3% 1% - 20%
3 Jul 2016 Forsa 24% 18% 8% 10% 4% 2% 3% 1% 12% 18%
19 Jun 2016 Kantar TNS 24% 19% - 14% 4% 2% 3% 1% 16% 17%
5 Jun 2016 Forsa 26% 20% - 11% 5% 1% 4% 1% 13% 19%
15 May 2016 Kantar TNS 28% 21% - 11% 5% 2% - - 16% 20%
10 Apr 2016 Kantar TNS 30% 19% - - 4% - - - 25% 22%
27 Mar 2016 Kantar TNS 32% 18% - - - - - - 28% 22%
23 Mar 2016 Forsa 35% 20% - - - - - - 21% 24%

Second round[edit]

Date Poll source Christine
Kallenbach

Ind.
Marina
Kaltenberg

Ind.
Undecided
25 Sep 2016 Kantar TNS 50% 50% -
25 Sep 2016 Forsa/SB 51% 49% -
22 Sep 2016 Forsa 50% 45% 5%
22 Sep 2016 YouTrend 48% 44% 8%
18 Sep 2016 Kantar TNS 46% 44% 10%
18 Sep 2016 RIB 45% 46% 9%
17 Sep 2016 Forsa 48% 43% 9%
16 Sep 2016 YouTrend 46% 44% 10%

Results[edit]

Kallenbach took a narrow first-place finish over Kaltenberg in the first round of the election on 11 September 2016, forcing a runoff. The result was described as a surprise, as the Kaltenberg camp and many political observers expected him to perform better or perhaps win outright. Samuel Kallmann, who finished third in the first round of voting, decided to endorse Marina Kaltenberg in the second round.

In the second round of the election on 25 September 2016, Kallenbach unseated Kaltenberg in the closest presidential election in Baltia by a margin of approximately one percentage point, according to official results.

Results of the first round by region.
Summary of the 2016 Baltish presidential election results
Candidate Party First round Second round
Votes % Votes %
Christine Kallenbach Independent 811,666 30.15 1,363,848 51.01
Marina Kaltenberg Independent 652,845 24.25 1,309,722 48.99
Samuel Kallmann Centre Party 497,002 18.46
Alois Jonke Independent 203,779 7.57
Martin Bolender Independent 188,899 7.01
Alexei Löffler The Greens 168,685 6.26
Johannes Adelman Left Bloc 116,842 4.34
Erhard Lewisohn Independent 51,880 1.92
Total valid 2,691,598 100.0 2,673,570 100.0
Invalid votes 48,841 1,78 77,079 2.80
Total votes 2,740,469 52.05 2,750,649 52.24
Eligible voters 5,264,811 5,264,811

First round results by region[edit]

Region Adelman Bolender Jonke Kallenbach Kallmann Kaltenberg Lewisohn Löffler Valid
votes
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Total
Harrien-Jerwen 14,575 5.07 21,450 7.46 19,770 6.87 60,555 21.07 66,419 23.11 87,084 30.30 4,952 1.72 12,584 4.37 287,389
Hochland 5,064 3.04 14,602 8.77 17,228 10.35 59,566 35.80 20,696 12.43 29,685 17.84 3,861 2.32 15,682 9.42 166,384
Kauenland 12,731 5.09 18,146 7.26 28,078 11.23 95,685 38.30 27,567 11.03 49,234 19.70 7,596 3.04 10,789 4.31 249,826
Courland 3,666 2.74 11,951 8.94 7,688 5.75 36,880 27.60 44,691 33.45 21,922 16.40 2,155 1.61 4,642 3.47 133,595
Latgalia 2,880 2.51 10,688 9.38 6,080 5.31 40,158 35.13 12,550 10.98 27,759 24.28 1,488 1.30 12,689 11.10 114,292
Memeland
L. Neman
8,691 4.10 19,109 9.02 18,854 8.90 80,961 38.24 23,331 11.02 50,036 23.63 2,510 1.18 8,190 3.86 211,682
N. Livonia 4,775 3.36 6,969 4.90 12,842 9.04 29,494 20.77 44,982 31.68 29,891 21.05 1,536 1.08 11,462 8.07 141,951
Northwest 985 1.50 3,805 5.82 4,676 7.15 13,995 21.41 20,568 31.47 16,811 25.72 822 1.25 3,681 5.63 65,343
Riga-Peringen 26,761 6.81 22,370 5.69 25,277 6.43 91,625 23.33 67,890 17.29 127,139 32.38 8,064 2.05 23,505 5.98 392,631
Samogitia 4,943 2.54 13,767 7.08 15,488 7.97 70,844 36.48 34,110 17.56 39,663 20.42 4,889 2.51 10,473 5.39 197,177
Semigalia 3,572 3.55 9,049 9.01 8,464 8.43 29,102 28.98 28,668 28.55 15,777 15.71 1,943 1.93 3,826 3.81 100,401
Sudovia
U. Neman
3,944 2.99 10,947 8.32 8,787 6.67 52,898 40.21 18,756 14.25 21,655 16.46 2,866 2.17 11,689 8.88 131,552
S. Livonia 1,409 1.53 4,136 4.49 5,100 5.54 16.745 18.20 32,561 35.39 26,056 28.32 1,115 1.21 4,863 5.28 91,985
Vierland 5,889 6.82 5,468 6.33 3,106 3.59 16,914 19.60 12,681 14.69 28,261 32.75 860 0.99 13,113 15.19 86,292
Vilnaland 16,957 5.23 16,442 5.07 22,341 6.89 116.244 35.86 41,532 12.81 81,862 25.25 7,223 2.22 21,497 6.63 324,098

Second round results by region[edit]

Region Kallenbach Kaltenberg Valid
votes
Votes % Votes % Total
Harrien-Jerwen 120,022 41.28 170,665 58.71 290,687
Hochland 103,686 58.24 74,333 41.75 178,019
Kauenland 154,891 61.50 96,938 38.49 251,829
Courland 63,492 48.24 68,115 51.75 131,607
Latgalia 55,568 52.18 50,919 47.81 106,487
Memeland
L. Neman
120,164 58.15 86,477 41.84 206,641
N. Livonia 65,755 46.01 77,156 53.98 142,911
Northwest 26,074 37.98 39,568 57.64 68,642
Riga-Peringen 181,330 48.21 194,772 51.75 376,102
Samogitia 107,071 54.72 88,581 45.27 195,652
Semigalia 50,580 50.66 49,256 49.33 99,836
Sudovia
U. Neman
76,759 57.40 56,966 42.59 133,725
S. Livonia 39,125 41.52 55,102 58.47 94,227
Vierland 29,121 34.54 55,166 65.45 84,287
Vilnaland 170,210 53.87 145,708 46.12 315,918

See also[edit]

Baltish presidential election, 2010
Baltish presidential election, 2022
Elections in Baltia
President of Baltia