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The Baltish presidential election of 2016 was the eighteenth presidential election to be held in Baltia. The first round took place on 11 September 2016 and the second round occurred on 25 September 2016. The elected candidate's term began on 14 October 2016 and will last until October 2022. The incumbent Thomas Henrik Imhoff was ineligible for re-election, having served the maximum two terms.
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 Results of the second round by region | |||||||||||||||||
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Eight candidates were confirmed by the National Electoral Committee of Baltia on 13 July 2016. No candidate received a majority of votes in the first round; with 30.2 percent of the vote, Christine Kallenbach, an independent politician endorsed by the Baltish People's Party and the Christian Social Union faced off against Marina Kaltenberg, also an independent politician endorsed by the Social Democratic Party, who received 24.3% of the vote.
Christine Kallenbach won the second round with 51.0% of the votes, while Marina Kaltenberg received 49.0% of the votes.
It was the first time that two women and two independent candidates was on the runoff ballot in a presidential election in Baltia.
Candidates
Previously plausible candidates
Centre Party
Declined to run:
- Andreas Annen, European Commissioner for Digital Single Market, former Prime Minister, former Minister of Economic Affairs and Infrastructure.
- Katja Kallmann, MEP.
- Udo Pagels, MEP, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, former Minister of Culture.
Baltish People's Party
Declined to run:
- Henrik Ehrenbaum, MP.
- Andreas Lischke, former Governor of the Bank of Baltia, former Minister of Finance (proposed as a possible joint candidate of the BFP and CSU).
- Jürgen Ratzlaff, MP, party leader.
- Elise Rehn, MP, former Minister of Education and Research, former party leader.
- Yulia Topilina, MEP.
Social Democratic Party
Declined to run:
- Marcel Auspitz, rector of the University of Riga.
- Rainer Falckenberg, MP.
- Maike Lauterbach, MEP, former Minister of the Interior.
- Sfen Mitterer, MP, former Minister of Defence.
- Eckart Nessler, President of the Parliament of Baltia.
- Ute Pauli, MP, former Minister of Economic Affairs, former Minister of Population and Minority Rights.
- Henrik Tanne, former President of Confederation of Baltish Trade Unions.
- Klaus Usachyov, Mayor of Riga.
Christian Social Union
Declined to run:
- Anne Erdmann, former President of the Parliament of Baltia.
- Andreas Lischke, former Governor of the Bank of Baltia, former Minister of Finance (proposed as a possible joint candidate of the BFP and CSU).
- Martin Nussbaum, former MP.
- Helmut-Valter Seetzen, MP, former Minister of Agriculture.
Party for Freedom
Declined to run:
- Martin Heilmann, MP, party leader.
The Greens
Announced, then defeated in primary:
- Linus Bahnsen, MP, former party leader.
- Lauri Sihvonen, MP, former member of Reval City Council.
Left Bloc
Announced, then defeated in primary:
Declined to run:
- Yelena Aleksenko, MP, party leader.
Other candidates
Failed to collect the 20,000 signatures needed to be a candidate:
- Karsten Kempter, author and entrepreneur.
- Sylvester Meinhardt, former Centre Party MP endorsed by the Pirate Party.
- Henrik Tauscher, MEP, party leader of the EU Exit Party.
- Edmund Sauerland, former party leader of the BFP, former Minister of Economic Affairs and Infrastructure.
Confirmed candidates
| Candidate name, age and political party |
Office(s) held | Details | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johannes Adelman (59) Left Bloc |
 |
MP for Riga (since 1995) |
The Left Bloc nominated, after a primary election on 12 May 2016, the veteran MP Johannes Adelman as the party's candidate to the Presidency. | |
| Martin Bolender (44) Independent |
 |
Head of the Office of the President (1999–2004) MP for Riga (2007–2011) |
On 4 May 2016, Martin Bolender announced that he had gathered the needed 20,000 signatures. On 12 May 2016, the Electoral Commission confirmed Bolender as official candidate. | |
| Alois Jonke (51) Independent |
 |
Chancellor of Justice (2001–2008) |
On 10 April 2016, the PfdF endorsed Jonke as the party's presidential candidate. | |
| Christine Kallenbach (46) Independent |
 |
Member of the European Court of Auditors (2004–2016) |
Former member of the BFP, ran to the Presidency as an independent politician with the support of the BFP and the CSU on 20 June 2016. | |
| Samuel Kallmann (67) Centre Party |
 |
Governor of the Bank of Baltia (1991–1995) MP for Reval (1995-2004) Minister of Finance (1999–2002) Prime Minister (2002–2003) European Commissioner for Administrative Affairs, Audit and Anti-Fraud (2004–2010) European Commissioner for Transport (2010–2014) |
The ZP nominated the veteran politician Samuel Kallmann, in preference to Marina Kaltenberg, as the party's official candidate after several months of internal debate. | |
| Marina Kaltenberg (54) Independent |
 |
Baltish Ambassador to Israel (2004–2006) Baltish Ambassador to Russia (2006–2011) Baltish Ambassador to United States (2011–2014) Minister of Foreign Affairs (2015–2016) |
On 3 July 2016, the ZP decided to support Samuel Kallmann as presidential candidate. After the decision, Kaltenberg announced that she would step down from her position as Minister of Foreign Affairs and would run for presidency without the support from the ZP. Her presidential bid was then supported by the SP. | |
| Erhard Lewisohn (61) Independent |
 |
Minister of Justice (1992–1993) Judge of the European Court of Human Rights (1995–2004) Judge of the European Court of Justice (since 2004) |
On 27 May 2016, Erhard Lewisohn announced that he had gathered the needed 20,000 signatures. On 8 June 2016, the Electoral Commission confirmed Lewisohn as official candidate. | |
| Alexei Löffler (56) The Greens |
 |
MP for Vierland (2011–2015) |
On 24 April 2016, The Greens elected in a primary election the former chairman of the party, Alexei Löffler as their presidential candidate. | |
Campaign
Funding
The candidancies have budgeted about more money for their campaigns than during the last presidential election in 2010. Ahead of the election, the campaign teams have budgeted as follows: Samuel Kallmann 750,000 euros, Christine Kallenbach and Marina Kaltenberg 600,000 euros, Alois Jonke 425,000 euros, Alexei Löffler 350,000 euros, Johannes Adelman 300,000 euros, Martin Bolender 130,000 euros and Erhard Lewisohn 75,000 euros.
Debates
Before the first round, there were several number of debates between all the candidates in TV networks and radio networks. Before the second round, only two debates took place on BR1 and TV4 between the final candidates Christine Kallenbach and Marina Kaltenberg.
| Date | Organizers | Moderators | Language | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 August 2016 20:00 |
Politisch Sommer BR2 |
Henrik Treitschke | Baltish | E. Lewisohn not present in the debate. |
| 22 August 2016 18:00 |
University of Dorpat BNS |
– | Baltish English |
J. Adelman and E. Lewisohn not present in the debate. |
| 24 August 2016 20:00 |
TV4 | Martin Madelung Sigrid Ehrenbaum |
Baltish | All the candidates present in the debate. |
| 25 August 2016 21:00 |
BR1 BR Radio 1 |
Andreas Kuntz | Baltish | All the candidates present in the debate. |
| 1 September 2016 20:00 |
Kanal 5 RadioCity |
Olaf Schulberg | Baltish | All the candidates present in the debate. |
| 4 September 2016 20:00 |
TV4 | Martin Madelung Sigrid Ehrenbaum |
Baltish | All the candidates present in the debate. |
| 5 September 2016 15:00 |
Sky Radio | Gunther Schiner | Baltish | E. Lewisohn not present in the debate. |
| 6 September 2016 20:00 |
BR4 BR Radio 3 |
Yulia Gurova Nikolai Lopatin |
Russian | A. Jonke not present in the debate. |
| 7 September 2016 18:00 |
TV24 Radio24 |
Ulrike Latzke | Baltish | All the candidates present in the debate. |
| 8 September 2016 21:00 |
BR1 BR Radio 1 |
Andreas Kuntz | Baltish | All the candidates present in the debate. |
| Date | Organizers | Moderators | Language | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 September 2016 20:00 |
TV4 | Martin Madelung Sigrid Ehrenbaum |
Baltish | Both candidates present in the debate. |
| 22 September 2016 21:00 |
BR1 BR Radio 1 |
Andreas Kuntz | Baltish | Both candidates present in the debate. |
Opinion polling
First round
| Date | Poll source | Marina Kaltenberg Ind. |
Samuel Kallmann ZP |
Christine Kallenbach Ind. |
Alois Jonke Ind. |
Alexei Löffler G |
Martin Bolender Ind. |
Johannes Adelman LB |
Erhard Lewisohn Ind. |
Others | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep 2016 | Kantar TNS | 26% | 17% | 28% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 1% | - | - |
| 11 Sep 2016 | Forsa/SB | 26% | 16% | 30% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 2% | - | - |
| 8 Sep 2016 | Forsa | 25% | 14% | 26% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 1% | - | 13% |
| 8 Sep 2016 | YouTrend | 25% | 14% | 24% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 1% | - | 14% |
| 6 Sep 2016 | Kantar TNS | 26% | 17% | 23% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 1% | - | 12% |
| 4 Sep 2016 | Forsa | 27% | 14% | 22% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | - | 16% |
| 4 Sep 2016 | RIB | 28% | 13% | 22% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 1% | - | 10% |
| 3 Sep 2016 | YouTrend | 26% | 14% | 21% | 10% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - | 13% |
| 28 Aug 2016 | Kantar TNS | 28% | 15% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 1% | - | 14% |
| 28 Aug 2016 | YouTrend | 28% | 15% | 18% | 10% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 2% | - | 14% |
| 26 Aug 2016 | Forsa | 27% | 16% | 16% | 11% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | - | 16% |
| 14 Aug 2016 | Kantar TNS | 29% | 16% | 13% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | - | 20% |
| 24 Jul 2016 | Kantar TNS | 29% | 18% | 12% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 1% | - | 19% |
| 23 Jul 2016 | Forsa | 26% | 17% | 15% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | - | 22% |
| 17 Jul 2016 | YouTrend | 28% | 17% | 14% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 1% | - | 20% |
| 3 Jul 2016 | Forsa | 24% | 18% | 8% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 12% | 18% |
| 19 Jun 2016 | Kantar TNS | 24% | 19% | - | 14% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 16% | 17% |
| 5 Jun 2016 | Forsa | 26% | 20% | - | 11% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 13% | 19% |
| 15 May 2016 | Kantar TNS | 28% | 21% | - | 11% | 5% | 2% | - | - | 16% | 20% |
| 10 Apr 2016 | Kantar TNS | 30% | 19% | - | - | 4% | - | - | - | 25% | 22% |
| 27 Mar 2016 | Kantar TNS | 32% | 18% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 28% | 22% |
| 23 Mar 2016 | Forsa | 35% | 20% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 21% | 24% |
Second round
| Date | Poll source | Christine Kallenbach Ind. |
Marina Kaltenberg Ind. |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2016 | Kantar TNS | 50% | 50% | - |
| 25 Sep 2016 | Forsa/SB | 51% | 49% | - |
| 22 Sep 2016 | Forsa | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| 22 Sep 2016 | YouTrend | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| 18 Sep 2016 | Kantar TNS | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| 18 Sep 2016 | RIB | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| 17 Sep 2016 | Forsa | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| 16 Sep 2016 | YouTrend | 46% | 44% | 10% |
Results
Kallenbach took a narrow first-place finish over Kaltenberg in the first round of the election on 11 September 2016, forcing a runoff. The result was described as a surprise, as the Kaltenberg camp and many political observers expected him to perform better or perhaps win outright. Samuel Kallmann, who finished third in the first round of voting, decided to endorse Marina Kaltenberg in the second round.
In the second round of the election on 25 September 2016, Kallenbach unseated Kaltenberg in the closest presidential election in Baltia by a margin of approximately one percentage point, according to official results.
| Candidate | Party | First round | Second round | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | |||
| Christine Kallenbach | Independent | 811,666 | 30.15 | 1,363,848 | 51.01 | |
| Marina Kaltenberg | Independent | 652,845 | 24.25 | 1,309,722 | 48.99 | |
| Samuel Kallmann | Centre Party | 497,002 | 18.46 | |||
| Alois Jonke | Independent | 203,779 | 7.57 | |||
| Martin Bolender | Independent | 188,899 | 7.01 | |||
| Alexei Löffler | The Greens | 168,685 | 6.26 | |||
| Johannes Adelman | Left Bloc | 116,842 | 4.34 | |||
| Erhard Lewisohn | Independent | 51,880 | 1.92 | |||
| Total valid | 2,691,598 | 100.0 | 2,673,570 | 100.0 | ||
| Invalid votes | 48,841 | 1,78 | 77,079 | 2.80 | ||
| Total votes | 2,740,469 | 52.05 | 2,750,649 | 52.24 | ||
| Eligible voters | 5,264,811 | 5,264,811 | ||||
First round results by region
| Region | Adelman | Bolender | Jonke | Kallenbach | Kallmann | Kaltenberg | Lewisohn | Löffler | Valid votes | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Total | |
| Harrien-Jerwen | 14,575 | 5.07 | 21,450 | 7.46 | 19,770 | 6.87 | 60,555 | 21.07 | 66,419 | 23.11 | 87,084 | 30.30 | 4,952 | 1.72 | 12,584 | 4.37 | 287,389 |
| Hochland | 5,064 | 3.04 | 14,602 | 8.77 | 17,228 | 10.35 | 59,566 | 35.80 | 20,696 | 12.43 | 29,685 | 17.84 | 3,861 | 2.32 | 15,682 | 9.42 | 166,384 |
| Kauenland | 12,731 | 5.09 | 18,146 | 7.26 | 28,078 | 11.23 | 95,685 | 38.30 | 27,567 | 11.03 | 49,234 | 19.70 | 7,596 | 3.04 | 10,789 | 4.31 | 249,826 |
| Courland | 3,666 | 2.74 | 11,951 | 8.94 | 7,688 | 5.75 | 36,880 | 27.60 | 44,691 | 33.45 | 21,922 | 16.40 | 2,155 | 1.61 | 4,642 | 3.47 | 133,595 |
| Latgalia | 2,880 | 2.51 | 10,688 | 9.38 | 6,080 | 5.31 | 40,158 | 35.13 | 12,550 | 10.98 | 27,759 | 24.28 | 1,488 | 1.30 | 12,689 | 11.10 | 114,292 |
| Memeland L. Neman |
8,691 | 4.10 | 19,109 | 9.02 | 18,854 | 8.90 | 80,961 | 38.24 | 23,331 | 11.02 | 50,036 | 23.63 | 2,510 | 1.18 | 8,190 | 3.86 | 211,682 |
| N. Livonia | 4,775 | 3.36 | 6,969 | 4.90 | 12,842 | 9.04 | 29,494 | 20.77 | 44,982 | 31.68 | 29,891 | 21.05 | 1,536 | 1.08 | 11,462 | 8.07 | 141,951 |
| Northwest | 985 | 1.50 | 3,805 | 5.82 | 4,676 | 7.15 | 13,995 | 21.41 | 20,568 | 31.47 | 16,811 | 25.72 | 822 | 1.25 | 3,681 | 5.63 | 65,343 |
| Riga-Peringen | 26,761 | 6.81 | 22,370 | 5.69 | 25,277 | 6.43 | 91,625 | 23.33 | 67,890 | 17.29 | 127,139 | 32.38 | 8,064 | 2.05 | 23,505 | 5.98 | 392,631 |
| Samogitia | 4,943 | 2.54 | 13,767 | 7.08 | 15,488 | 7.97 | 70,844 | 36.48 | 34,110 | 17.56 | 39,663 | 20.42 | 4,889 | 2.51 | 10,473 | 5.39 | 197,177 |
| Semigalia | 3,572 | 3.55 | 9,049 | 9.01 | 8,464 | 8.43 | 29,102 | 28.98 | 28,668 | 28.55 | 15,777 | 15.71 | 1,943 | 1.93 | 3,826 | 3.81 | 100,401 |
| Sudovia U. Neman |
3,944 | 2.99 | 10,947 | 8.32 | 8,787 | 6.67 | 52,898 | 40.21 | 18,756 | 14.25 | 21,655 | 16.46 | 2,866 | 2.17 | 11,689 | 8.88 | 131,552 |
| S. Livonia | 1,409 | 1.53 | 4,136 | 4.49 | 5,100 | 5.54 | 16.745 | 18.20 | 32,561 | 35.39 | 26,056 | 28.32 | 1,115 | 1.21 | 4,863 | 5.28 | 91,985 |
| Vierland | 5,889 | 6.82 | 5,468 | 6.33 | 3,106 | 3.59 | 16,914 | 19.60 | 12,681 | 14.69 | 28,261 | 32.75 | 860 | 0.99 | 13,113 | 15.19 | 86,292 |
| Vilnaland | 16,957 | 5.23 | 16,442 | 5.07 | 22,341 | 6.89 | 116.244 | 35.86 | 41,532 | 12.81 | 81,862 | 25.25 | 7,223 | 2.22 | 21,497 | 6.63 | 324,098 |
Second round results by region
| Region | Kallenbach | Kaltenberg | Valid votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Total | |
| Harrien-Jerwen | 120,022 | 41.28 | 170,665 | 58.71 | 290,687 |
| Hochland | 103,686 | 58.24 | 74,333 | 41.75 | 178,019 |
| Kauenland | 154,891 | 61.50 | 96,938 | 38.49 | 251,829 |
| Courland | 63,492 | 48.24 | 68,115 | 51.75 | 131,607 |
| Latgalia | 55,568 | 52.18 | 50,919 | 47.81 | 106,487 |
| Memeland L. Neman |
120,164 | 58.15 | 86,477 | 41.84 | 206,641 |
| N. Livonia | 65,755 | 46.01 | 77,156 | 53.98 | 142,911 |
| Northwest | 26,074 | 37.98 | 39,568 | 57.64 | 68,642 |
| Riga-Peringen | 181,330 | 48.21 | 194,772 | 51.75 | 376,102 |
| Samogitia | 107,071 | 54.72 | 88,581 | 45.27 | 195,652 |
| Semigalia | 50,580 | 50.66 | 49,256 | 49.33 | 99,836 |
| Sudovia U. Neman |
76,759 | 57.40 | 56,966 | 42.59 | 133,725 |
| S. Livonia | 39,125 | 41.52 | 55,102 | 58.47 | 94,227 |
| Vierland | 29,121 | 34.54 | 55,166 | 65.45 | 84,287 |
| Vilnaland | 170,210 | 53.87 | 145,708 | 46.12 | 315,918 |
See also
Baltish presidential election, 2010
Baltish presidential election, 2022
Elections in Baltia
President of Baltia